The NBA's annual draft is scheduled for June 22, where a diverse pool of talented players from domestic and international backgrounds will be selected. As these prospects showcase their skills on the court, the question arises: how does an NBA team sift through the talent to ensure a successful draft?
NBA teams should take a page out of the risk and resilience playbook. A risk and resilience management approach can be crucial in helping an NBA team improve its ability to draft players optimally. By systematically assessing and managing risks associated with player evaluation and selection, teams can make more informed decisions, reduce uncertainties, and increase their chances of drafting talented players who align with their strategic goals. Here are some scenarios and examples that illustrate how such an approach can be beneficial:
Data-driven player evaluation
An NBA team can incorporate advanced analytics and data-driven decision-making into their draft process. The team can identify patterns, trends, and risk factors associated with successful draft picks by analyzing historical performance data, player statistics, and other relevant metrics. This approach allows the team to focus on players who exhibit specific traits, skills, or performance indicators that have historically translated into success at the professional level. For instance, teams may use predictive models to assess the likelihood of a college player's success based on shooting efficiency, defensive metrics, and team impact.
The Houston Rockets, under the leadership of Daryl Morey, implemented a data-driven approach to player evaluation known as "Moneyball for Basketball." By emphasizing advanced statistical analysis and player efficiency metrics, the Rockets were able to identify undervalued players and make successful draft picks, including James Harden and Chandler Parsons.
Risk assessment and player due diligence
Teams can evaluate risk factors associated with potential draft prospects, including injury history, character concerns, off-court behavior, and the player's fit within the team's system and culture. Conducting thorough background checks, interviewing players and their references, and monitoring their social media presence can provide valuable insights into their character, work ethic, and potential risks associated with their selection.
Suppose an NBA team is considering drafting a player with a significant injury in college. By conducting a risk assessment, the team can evaluate the player's medical records, consult with experts, and assess the potential long-term effects of the injury. This analysis can help the team make an informed decision about the player's fitness for their system and assess the risk-reward trade-off associated with drafting the player.
Scenario planning and contingency strategies
By employing scenario planning techniques, teams can anticipate various outcomes and develop contingency strategies to mitigate risks or exploit opportunities that may arise during the draft. This approach enables teams to adapt quickly to changing circumstances, such as unexpected draft-day trades or the availability of players they did not anticipate being available.
Imagine an NBA team has identified a particular player they want to draft, but another team might select the player before their turn. The team can develop a contingency plan by identifying alternative players who closely match their desired skillset and ensure they are well-prepared to adjust their draft strategy if needed. In the 2013 NBA Draft, the Portland Trail Blazers had contingency plans for their draft pick. They were targeting C.J. McCollum but also had backup options in case he was taken before their turn. When McCollum was selected before their pick, they quickly adjusted their strategy and selected shooting guard Allen Crabbe as a backup option, demonstrating their preparedness.
Stakeholder engagement and expert opinions
Engaging various stakeholders within the organization, including coaches, scouts, and analysts, can provide valuable insights and diverse perspectives during the drafting process. By fostering collaboration and seeking expert opinions, teams can reduce biases and make more well-rounded decisions. This approach allows teams to benefit from their staff's collective knowledge and expertise, increasing the chances of identifying hidden gems or potential red flags associated with draft prospects.
Suppose an NBA team is considering drafting a relatively unknown international player. By engaging with international scouts, language interpreters, and experts familiar with the player's playing style and cultural background, the team can better understand the player's potential, character, and adaptability to the NBA. This comprehensive assessment can help minimize risks and optimize the drafting decision.
Continuous improvement and learning
A risk and resilience management approach encourages teams to embrace a culture of continuous improvement and learning from past experiences. By conducting post-draft evaluations, analyzing the performance and development of drafted players, and identifying areas for improvement in their drafting process, teams can refine their strategies over time. This iterative approach enables teams to adapt to evolving trends, emerging analytics, and changing player evaluation methodologies, thus increasing their drafting efficiency.
The San Antonio Spurs, known for their successful drafting and player development, exemplify the importance of continuous improvement. Through a combination of analytics, scouting, and player development initiatives, the Spurs have consistently identified talent outside the top draft picks and maximized their potential. Their commitment to learning from past experiences has contributed to their sustained success.
Building a resilient talent pipeline
A risk and resilience management approach also extends beyond a single draft. It involves building a resilient talent pipeline through long-term strategic planning, player development programs, and a focus on organizational stability. By nurturing young talent, providing a supportive environment, and offering growth opportunities, teams can create a sustainable system that consistently produces successful draft picks and minimizes the impact of individual draft misses.
All NBA teams recognize the importance of building a solid talent pipeline for sustained success. They invest in player development programs, build relationships with top college programs, and establish a reputation for developing young talent. By creating a resilient talent pipeline, the team ensures a continuous influx of skilled players, reducing the risk associated with any single draft and increasing the likelihood of success over the long term.
Collaboration with other teams
Collaboration and information sharing with other teams can be beneficial in evaluating potential draft prospects. Participating in pre-draft combines, attending scouting events, and engaging in discussions with other teams can help gather valuable insights and perspectives on players. This collaboration can provide a broader understanding of a player's value, strengths, weaknesses, and potential risks, enabling teams to make more informed decisions during the draft.
If an NBA team is considering drafting a player who has received interest from multiple teams, conversations with those teams allow the team to exchange information and insights about the player's performance, character, and fit. This collaborative approach can help mitigate risks associated with the player's selection and improve the team's overall drafting efficiency.
Incorporating qualitative factors
While data and analytics play a significant role in player evaluation, it's also essential to consider qualitative factors. These factors include a player's intangibles, such as leadership qualities, work ethic, coachability, and basketball IQ. Integrating qualitative assessments into the risk and resilience management approach ensures a more comprehensive evaluation of a player's potential impact on the team's success.
An NBA team is evaluating a player who might not have impressive statistics but has a reputation for being a hard worker and a leader on and off the court. By considering these qualitative factors, the team can recognize the player’s potential value to the team's culture, chemistry, and overall performance.
Long-term strategic planning
A risk and resilience management approach should align with the team's long-term strategic goals and vision. It involves assessing the team's current roster, identifying gaps and areas of improvement, and aligning the drafting strategy accordingly. By considering the team's needs, playing style, and long-term aspirations, the team can prioritize players who best fit their strategic direction, enhancing the efficiency of the draft selections.
Suppose an NBA team aims to transition into a faster-paced, perimeter-oriented style of play. In their draft strategy, they prioritize selecting players with excellent shooting, agility, and the ability to defend multiple positions, aligning with their long-term strategic plan. By focusing on players who fit the desired playing style, the team enhances the efficiency of their draft selections and builds a cohesive roster.
Where does operational resilience fit?
Operational resilience refers to an organization's ability to absorb shocks, respond effectively to disruptions, and maintain critical functions. In the context of drafting, operational resilience involves implementing strategies and processes that allow the team to adapt and recover from setbacks or unexpected events throughout the drafting process. Here's how operational resilience can be applied:
- Flexibility and adaptability: An operational resilience approach involves being flexible and adaptable to evolving situations. This includes being open to new information, adjusting evaluation criteria, and revising draft plans based on emerging insights or unexpected developments.
- Impact Tolerance: Impact tolerance refers to an organization's ability to assess and tolerate the potential impact of risks. In the context of drafting, it involves understanding the potential risks associated with draft selections, determining the acceptable level of risk, and making decisions accordingly. Applying an impact tolerance concept involves adopting a portfolio approach to drafting. Instead of relying heavily on a single high-risk, high-reward player, teams can diversify their draft selections, considering a mix of lower-risk and higher-risk prospects. This approach helps spread the risk and increases the likelihood of finding valuable contributors while managing potential downsides.
- Mock drafts and simulations: Conducting mock drafts and simulations allows teams to anticipate different scenarios and outcomes. By simulating various draft scenarios, teams can assess their decisions' potential impact and evaluate their overall strategy's resilience. This helps them identify areas of improvement, adjust their approach, and make more effective decisions during the draft.
- Learning from past experiences: An essential aspect of operational resilience is learning from past experiences and applying those lessons to future decision-making. After each draft, teams can conduct post-draft evaluations to assess the success and failure of their picks. By analyzing the outcomes, identifying areas for improvement, and integrating those learnings into the drafting process, teams can enhance their resilience and increase their drafting efficiency over time.
- Post-draft analysis: Evaluating the performance and development of drafted players can provide valuable insights into the effectiveness of the team's drafting decisions. This analysis helps identify patterns, strengths, weaknesses, and areas of improvement in the team's draft strategy.
The business impacts of getting the draft wrong
When an NBA team gets the draft wrong, it can have significant business impacts on the organization. Here are some key areas where the business impact can be felt:
- Drafting the wrong players can impact the team's on-court performance. If a team consistently makes poor draft choices, it may need help to field a competitive roster, leading to a decline in wins, playoff appearances, and fan interest. This can decrease game attendance, lower TV ratings, and reduce merchandise sales. Ultimately, it can lead to a loss of revenue and a decline in the team's market value.
- Poor draft selections can also have financial implications for an NBA team. When teams invest high draft picks or significant contracts in players who fail to live up to expectations, it can lead to wasted resources and a lack of return on investment. Teams may have to carry the burden of large contracts for underperforming players, limiting their flexibility to pursue another talent in free agency or make necessary roster adjustments. In addition, if a team consistently needs to catch up on its draft picks, it may need help to develop and retain valuable assets, making it challenging to build a sustainable and cost-effective roster.
- A team repeatedly makes poor draft decisions can damage the organization's reputation and erode fan trust and confidence. Fans may need to be more satisfied with the team's ability to evaluate and develop talent, leading to declining fan engagement and loyalty. Negative media coverage and public scrutiny can further harm the team's brand image, making it harder to attract top-tier free agents, secure sponsorships, and generate revenue from partnerships and endorsements.
- Consistently getting the draft wrong can raise questions about the competence of team leadership, including general managers, coaches, and scouting departments. It can undermine confidence in the organization's decision-making processes and ability to build a successful team. Internal instability may arise as ownership, management, and coaching staff face increased scrutiny and potential turnover, further disrupting the team's long-term stability and strategic planning.
- When a team repeatedly misses draft picks, it not only incurs the negative impact of those selections but also misses out on potential opportunities. Successful draft picks can be valuable assets for a team, both on the court and in trade value. When teams consistently fail to identify and develop talent, they miss out on the potential for future trades, player development, and building a solid foundation for sustained success. This opportunity cost can limit the team's ability to compete, make strategic moves, and maintain relevance in a highly competitive league.
- An NBA team consistently makes poor draft choices can negatively impact the team’s and its players’ marketability. Sponsors and corporate partners may be less inclined to associate their brands with a team perceived as underperforming or lacking star power. This can lead to losing sponsorship opportunities, endorsement deals, and potential revenue streams vital for the organization’s financial health.
- A team that consistently fails to make successful draft picks may need help to retain fan loyalty and support. Fans want to see their team succeed and witness the development of promising young players. When the team fails to deliver on these expectations, ticket sales, decreased fan engagement, and a loss of season ticket holders can lead to declining ticket sales. This decline in fan support directly impacts the team's revenue streams and overall business operations.
- Drafting the wrong players can disrupt the team's player development process and hinder the establishment of a positive organizational culture. When talented players fail to reach their potential due to poor coaching, inadequate infrastructure, or a lack of fit within the team's system, it can negatively impact player morale and hinder the team's ability to attract and retain top talent in the future. A pattern of unsuccessful draft picks can also make building a cohesive team culture and environment conducive to success challenging.
- The long-term business value of an NBA team is closely tied to its success on the court and the marketability of its brand. Consistently getting the draft wrong can result in a decline in the team's market value, affecting team ownership and potential investment opportunities. Lower team valuations may limit the financial resources for player acquisitions, facility upgrades, and overall organizational growth.
Sample risk and operational resilience metrics that help evaluate the player value
- Player Injury Risk: Measures the likelihood and severity of potential injuries for draft prospects. This can be quantified using historical injury data, medical assessments, and statistical models.
- Character Risk: Evaluate the potential behavioral or off-court issues that may impact a player's performance or team chemistry. This can be assessed through interviews, background checks, and input from character references.
- Performance Risk: Assesses the uncertainty surrounding a player's ability to transition from college or international basketball to the NBA. This can be measured using statistical analysis, player comparisons, and scouting evaluations.
- Draft Efficiency: Measures the success rate of draft selections based on player performance, development, and contribution to team success. This can be assessed by evaluating win shares, player efficiency rating (PER), and advanced analytics-based assessments.
- Return on Investment (ROI): Measures the financial return generated by drafted players relative to their draft position and contract value. It can be calculated by analyzing player performance, salary cap implications, and market value.
- Player Retention Rate: Tracks the percentage of drafted players who remain with the team beyond their rookie contracts. This metric reflects the team's ability to identify and develop talent that aligns with their long-term objectives.
Sample Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
It's important to note that the specific metrics and KPIs used can vary depending on the team's objectives, strategies, and available data. Teams can customize these metrics and KPIs based on their unique needs and circumstances. Regular monitoring and analysis of these metrics and KPIs provide insights into the effectiveness of the drafting process, enabling teams to make data-driven decisions, improve operational resilience, and enhance their overall drafting efficiency.
- Win Percentage Improvement: Measures the team’s win percentage change over a specified period, comparing performance before and after implementing a revised drafting strategy. This KPI reflects the impact of improved drafting on overall team success.
- Draft Success Rate: Measures the percentage of drafted players who become significant contributors or All-Stars in the NBA. This KPI reflects the team's ability to identify and select high-impact players during the draft.
- Team Value Growth: Measures the increase in the team's market value over time, which can be influenced by drafting successful players who contribute to team success, fan engagement, and revenue generation.
Player Evaluation Business Impact Analysis Form
Player Information
- Player Name:
- Position:
- College/International Team:
- Draft Year:
Performance Metrics
- Statistical Performance (e.g., points per game, rebounds, assists):
- Advanced Analytics (e.g., PER, win shares, true shooting percentage):
- Team Success Metrics (e.g., team win-loss record, playoff appearances):
Risk Assessment
- Injury Risk: Assess the player's injury history, susceptibility to injuries, and potential impact on performance and availability.
- Character Risk: Evaluate any behavioral or off-court concerns that may impact team chemistry, public image, or potential disciplinary issues.
- Performance Risk: Consider the level of competition faced by the player (college or international), potential challenges in transitioning to the NBA, and concerns about skill set adaptation.
Team Fit
- Team Needs: Evaluate how the player's skills, position, and playing style align with the team's current roster and strategic objectives.
- Coaching Fit: Assess the player's compatibility with the coaching staff's system, style of play, and development philosophy.
- Culture Fit: Consider the player's personality, work ethic, and ability to integrate into the team's culture and values.
Marketability and Brand Impact
- Market Value: Assess the player's potential market value, endorsement opportunities, and impact on ticket sales, merchandise, and fan engagement.
- Public Image: Evaluate the player's reputation, media presence, and potential positive or negative impact on the team's brand and public perception.
- Sponsorship Opportunities: Consider the player's marketability, appeal to sponsors, and potential impact on securing sponsorship deals and partnerships.
Financial Considerations
- Salary Cap Implications: Evaluate the player's projected contract value, salary cap impact, and long-term financial implications for the team's payroll.
- Return on Investment (ROI): Assess the potential financial return generated by the player's performance, jersey sales, ticket revenue, and overall contribution to team success.
Risk Mitigation Strategies
- Player Development Plan: Outline specific development strategies and resources to address areas of improvement and maximize the player's potential.
- Support Systems: Identify the necessary support systems (e.g., coaching, medical staff, mental health resources) to mitigate risks and support the player's growth.
- Contractual Protection: Consider contract clauses, incentives, and performance-based provisions to mitigate financial risks associated with the player's performance or off-court issues.
Overall Assessment and Recommendations
- Summary: Provide a concise summary of the player's evaluation, highlighting strengths, weaknesses, and potential impact on the team's objectives.
- Draft Position Recommendation: Recommend the appropriate draft position or range for selecting players based on their evaluation and potential business impact.
- Additional Comments: Include any additional comments or considerations that may impact the player's evaluation or draft position.
Getting the draft wrong can have significant business impacts on an NBA team. It can lead to on-court struggles, financial implications, reputational damage, and fan disengagement. Additionally, it can raise questions about organizational stability and result in missed opportunities for growth and success. Therefore, employing a risk and resilience management approach to improve drafting efficiency becomes crucial in mitigating these potential business impacts and enhancing the overall performance and sustainability of the team.
By integrating risk and resilience management into their drafting process, an NBA team can enhance its ability to make efficient and informed decisions. A risk and resilience management approach provides a structured framework for evaluating players, managing risks, and optimizing the drafting process, ultimately increasing the team's chances of identifying and acquiring the right talent that aligns with their strategic objectives. By leveraging data, collaborating with stakeholders, considering qualitative factors, and aligning with long-term strategic planning, teams can increase their chances of selecting the right players who contribute to their success on and off the court.
2023 NBA Draft Rankings
Applying the risk and resilience management approach and the metrics outlined above, we stacked our draft rankings next to the experts.
PLEASE TURN PHONE SIDEWAYS IF VIEWING ON MOBILE TO VIEW THE TABLE
| Full Projections For Top 100 And Selected Unranked Players | |||||
| PLAYER | TEAM | TOP100 | STATS | ESPN | CLDigital |
| Victor Wembanyama | Metropolitans 92 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Brandon Miller | Alabama | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Cam Whitmore | Villanova | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| Taylor Hendricks | UCF | 9 | 8 | 4 | 8 |
| Gradey Dick | Kansas | 10 | 9 | 5 | 19 |
| Amen Thompson | Overtime Elite | NR | NR | NR | 5 |
| Cason Wallace | Kentucky | 15 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| Dereck Lively II | Duke | 13 | 10 | 7 | 16 |
| Ausar Thompson | Overtime Elite | NR | NR | NR | 7 |
| Jarace Walker | Houston | 7 | 14 | 8 | 4 |
| Brandin Podziemski | Santa Clara | 27 | 2 | 9 | 31 |
| Brice Sensabaugh | Ohio State | 22 | 7 | 10 | 32 |
| Dariq Whitehead | Duke | 26 | 6 | 11 | 14 |
| Keyonte George | Baylor | 17 | 11 | 12 | 12 |
| Scoot Henderson | G League Ignite | 3 | 33 | 13 | 2 |
| Anthony Black | Arkansas | 8 | 18 | 14 | 27 |
| Jett Howard | Michigan | 19 | 12 | 15 | 15 |
| Leonard Miller | G League Ignite | 23 | 13 | 16 | 10 |
| Jordan Hawkins | UConn | 16 | 16 | 17 | 11 |
| Nick Smith Jr. | Arkansas | 14 | 19 | 18 | 13 |
| Colby Jones | Xavier | 28 | 15 | 19 | 30 |
| Noah Clowney | Alabama | 21 | 25 | 20 | 33 |
| Kris Murray | Iowa | 25 | 24 | 21 | 22 |
| Jordan Walsh | Arkansas | 39 | 17 | 22 | 34 |
| Kobe Bufkin | Michigan | 18 | 32 | 23 | 17 |
| Marcus Sasser | Houston | 37 | 20 | 24 | 20 |
| Terquavion Smith | North Carolina State | 41 | 21 | 25 | 23 |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | UCLA | 30 | 28 | 26 | 35 |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | Illinois | NR | NR | NR | 28 |
| Bilal Coulibaly | Metropolitans 92 | 11 | 49 | 27 | 36 |
| Julian Phillips | Tennessee | 34 | 30 | 28 | 37 |
| Jalen Slawson | Furman | 72 | 22 | 29 | 38 |
| Jaylen Clark | UCLA | 53 | 26 | 30 | 39 |
| Enzo Shahrvin | Pau | NR | 23 | 31 | 40 |
| Rayan Rupert | NZ Breakers | 20 | 45 | 32 | 26 |